Boris's Poll Lead is Collapsing

Just a few weeks ago Boris's Conservative Party was leading Labour 55 to 30, but there has been a rapid shift.


The onset of the Coronavirus Crisis saw a huge groundswell of support for the Conservative party. This is to be expected, and is what pollsters coin the 'rallying around' effect which buoys the popularity of incumbents in a time of crisis. These extraordinary approval ratings were always going to be unsustainable, so it is no surprise they have fallen. However what is surprising is the rapid pace at which the Conservative Party poll lead has crashed.



YouGov polling shows an enormous and consistent 20 point lead from the first of February of this year, which has plummeted to a 6 point lead in a period of approximately six weeks. While the drop we see from April to May was expected, the further and drastic fall throughout May, as well as the sudden rise of Labour's ratings is something to behold.


Is this the Dominic Cummings Effect?

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We are years out from a general election. Tory strategists won't be too worried by this poll, particularly in the view of the fact that the Tories still hold a 17 point lead over Labour in the Midlands and Wales, in addition to strong leads in the battle to command the support of the working class, even on this latest YouGov poll:

However if polls like this continue, and Conservative nerves falter, it could eventually spell the end for Boris's leadership, if not the Conservative party's chances of electoral victory come 2024.



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